The spectacular price rise seen in the 2017/18 season continued in the early months of the 2018/19 season, but ultimately prices fell back by the end of the 2018/19 season. The 2016-2018 Supercycle reached a peak in August 2018 with a week-ending record price of 2116 c/kg. Prices dropped back from the peak over Spring 2019, before bouncing back up in the first two months of 2019 as wool supply dried up due to the drought. Prices then turned down and the EMI fell by 531 c/kg from the close of the 2017/18 season to the close of the 2018/19 season, a 17% decline. It was also lower by 313 UScents, 252 €cents and 1746 RMB. All the regional indicators saw significant falls, with the Northern Market Indicator down by 358 c/kg, the Southern Market Indicator 330 cents lower and the Western Market Indicator down the most, falling by 411 cents. Despite the falls, the EMI and the regional indicators are all higher than at the start of the 2017/18 season.
All the AWEX Micron Price Guides fell over the 2018/19 season. The largest fall in 2018/19 was for Merino Cardings which dropped by 40%. Superfine Merino wool of 18 microns and finer also recorded significant declines, down by 20% to 25%. Prices for medium micron Merino wool (21-24 micron) recorded more modest declines. Fine Crossbred wool also saw smaller falls.
The falls in 2018/19 reversed some but not all of the 2017/18 increases for most microns. In contrast, 28 micron and broader wool prices lifted over the 2018/19 season. The price falls were larger in US$ terms (or gains were smaller) because the A$ fell by 3.6 UScents from 73.5 UScents to 69.9 UScents over the season.
Further details including a chart showing the % change in prices for the EMI and the MPGs in 2018/19 and compares that with the change in the 2017/18 season, in both A$ and US$ are contained in this week’s edition of the NCWSBA Weekly Newsletter. Available to NCWSBA members.