ABARES (the Australian Government’s agricultural commodity forecaster) recently released its latest forecasts for 2018/19. Its March forecasts were bullish for wool price, and now the June forecasts have been lifted even further. ABARES predicts that the EMI will average 1990 c/kg in 2018/19, up 15.5% from an average of 1723 c/kg in 2017/18. In March 2018, ABARES predicted that the EMI would average 1700 c/kg in 2018/19. So, the forecast annual average has been lifted by 290 c/kg. This is an amazing lift in a mere 3 months and a phenomenal average for a full season. When looked at through the lens of the current EMI (2073 c/kg), the 1990 c/kg average in 2018/19 looks perfectly reasonable. But, looking from an historical perspective, it looks a little optimistic.
Wool is the star performer from ABARES’ latest forecast, with such a 16% strong rise in wool prices in 2018/19. ABARES predicts that prices for lamb, mutton and live sheep will increase by around 2% and that wheat prices will lift by 6%. It predicts that beef prices will drop by 8%.
Further details and a chart showings a comparison of the prices for the key broad acre agricultural products are included in the NCWSBA Weekly Newsletter for the week ending 22nd June 2018, available to NCWSBA members.